VUCA is dead, long live BANI: And this is how the corporate world must respond
Business gurus are telling C-Suite leaders that they must move on from VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty Complexity, Ambiguity) and prepare for a BANI world (Brittle Anxious, Non-linear and Incomprehensible.) But many of the current trends that we are seeing are making for more brittle organizations.
The concept was introduced by Jamis Cascio to describe the modern world’s extreme unpredictability. As organizations navigate rapid technological change, and shifting work and lifetsyle, Cascio argues that BANI provides a lens to understand these new challenges. Leaders must move beyond traditional stability-seeking strategies and instead focus on resilience and adaptability.
But as organizations embrace trends such as remote work, digital transformation and AI-driven decision-making, concerns are being raised that they are becoming more brittle, making them more fragile and susceptible to breakdown.
The choice of the word brittle, as opposed to simply weak or fragile, is an interesting one. Brittleness refers to structures that appear strong but are prone to collapse under stress.
Workplace resilience
The shift to Work3—including remote and hybrid models—can lead to weaker social bonds, lower employee engagement, and diminished trust. Without face-to-face interactions, informal mentorship, and organic knowledge sharing, workplace resilience starts to erode.
In their attempt to embrace flexibility, many organizations have inadvertently weakened interpersonal connections and eroded company culture. In other words, they have weakened what social psychologists call social capital – the sense of connectedness that holds a community together. These organizations appear strong now, but they are prone to collapse under stress.
Organizational resilience, adaptability, and human-centered management
To counteract brittleness, leaders must focus on organizational resilience, adaptability, and human-centered management. They must focus on building social capital at the same time as capitalizing on the benefits of Work3.
Social capital encompasses the trust, mutual understanding, and shared values that bind members together, enabling effective collaboration and information exchange. Now imagine the opposite of this, remote working and replacing human contact with technology leads to weaker social bonds, they know little about one another, people have fewer close friends in the organization, they have little sense of belonging or loyalty to it. On the surface, this organization may seem dynamic and cutting edge, but the lack of cultural capital makes it brittle.
McKinsey & Company highlights that employees who feel more connected within their networks are twice as likely to report higher levels of engagement and a sense of belonging at work. This connectivity enhances the organization’s ability to adapt to challenges and reduces the risk of systemic failures.
Moreover, organizations with high social capital can better mobilize resources and support during times of crisis. A study on small business resilience after Hurricane Katrina found that support from community organizations (bridging social capital) significantly contributed to both economic and attitudinal resilience post-disaster. This underscores the importance of external networks and community ties in enhancing organizational robustness. Social capital counteracts brittleness in the face of volatility and unexpected shocks to the system.
Over the past 20 years, we have identified 10 key actions that line managers must take to build social capital. With the rise of technology and shifts such as remote work, these actions are now more crucial than ever. Our role is to help line managers turn these behaviors into lasting habits by demonstrating what good looks like, why it matters, and equipping them with the skills and confidence to put them into practice. To find out more visit us at www.threshold.co.uk
Ten priority actions for building and sustaining social capital:
- Host regular and meaningful team gatherings – Whether in person or virtual, create opportunities for your team to connect and build relationships.
- Facilitate open conversations and meetings – Encourage feedback, involvement, and active participation from everyone.
- Plan for success with performance previews – Collaborate with your team members to discuss upcoming goals and how to achieve them.
- Be fully present and listen genuinely – Show your team you value them by giving your full attention during conversations.
- Provide constructive and meaningful feedback – Help your team grow by offering clear and actionable guidance.
- Focus on their strengths – Talk to your team members about what they’re good at and how they can use their strengths effectively.
- Encourage their ideas and input – Actively listen to suggestions on workflows, processes, and ways to improve how work gets done.
- See the whole person – Get to know your team members as individuals. Learn what they care about and what motivates them.
- Treat everyone with fairness – Ensure all team members feel valued and respected, no matter the situation.
- Keep them in the loop – Regularly update your team on progress and decisions about the things that matter to them.
To find out more about Threshold and the ways in which we are helping our clients to focus on resilience and adaptability get in touch here
